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Created: May 2, 2019
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PHASE THREE: JUUL survey Flagler College students spring 2019
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Introduction:

On the first phase of this project the JUUL habits of a sample of 150 Flagler College students in spring of 2019 was explored. In the second phase, this same sample of 150 Flagler College students was divided into two smaller samples which were referred to as the students who have ever used the JUUL and students who have never used the JUUL. The term “Ever” defined the sample of those Flagler College students who have ever used a JUUL in their life. The term “Never” defined the sample of those Flagler College students who have never used a JUUL before in their life. There are 76 students who have ever used a JUUL and 74 who have never used a JUUL. A bar chart representing the two sampled is presented below. 


Result 1: result 1   [Info]
Right click to copy

 

On this phase of the report attention will be given to students’ opinions about JUULing should be banned or allowed on Flagler Campus. 


First, methods of statistical inference will be used to determine if the sample results indicate that the majority of the population of Flagler College students feel that the JUUL should be banned on campus. A hypothesis test will first be run to find statistical evidence of majority and then a confidence interval will be created to estimate the percentage of the population of Flagler College students who feel the JUUL should be banned on campus.


Second, the sample results will also be used to determine if the opinion of the population of all students who think it should be allowed and the population of all students who think it should be banned have a statistically significant difference of opinion regarding the distraction the JUUL causes on campus. Again, a hypothesis test will be run to find statistical evidence of a difference and then a confidence interval will be created to estimate the difference in the percentage of the population of Flagler College students who feel the JUUL should be banned on campus.


Hypothesis Test #1 – A Claim of Majority

In the sample of 150 students, 66 students (about 44%) said that it should be banned on campus and 84 students (about 56%) said it should be allowed on campus. The majority of the students voted that it should be allowed. 

These sample results will be used to test the claim that the majority of the population of Flagler College students think that the JUUL should be allowed on campus at a level of significance of 0.05  A pie chart of the data is given below.


Result 2: result 2   [Info]
Right click to copy

 

Hypothesize

              Null: Fifty six percent of all Flagler College students believe that the JUUL should be allowed on campus.

              Alternate: More than 56% of all Flagler College students believe that the JUUL should be allowed on campus.

Based on the alternate hypothesis, this is a right-sided test.


Prepare

              1. Random Sample – Frankly, probably not (but we hope it is representative).  However, to proceed, we will assume it is.

              2. Large Sample – Since np0 = (150) (0.50) = 75 > 10 and n(1-p0) = (150) (0.50) = 75 > 10 are both true statements, the sample is large.

              3. Big Population – Since 10n = (10)(150) = 1500 < 2500, the population is big.  Recall, Flagler College has a population of appropriately 2500 students.

              4. Independence within Sample – Yes, the student responses were taken in such a way that their responses were independent of each other.


Compute


Result 3: result 3   [Info]

One sample proportion summary hypothesis test:


p : Proportion of successes
H0 : p = 0.5
HA : p > 0.5

Hypothesis test results:
ProportionCountTotalSample Prop.Std. Err.Z-StatP-value
p841500.560.0408248291.46969380.0708

 

Interpret

Since the p-value (0.0708) is greater than the level of significance of 0.05, the null hypothesis must not be rejected.  Therefore, there is not sufficient evidence to support the claim that the majority of all Flagler College students feel that the JUUL should be allowed on campus. 


Confidence Interval #1 – Estimating the Population Proportion

The hypothesis test does not give sufficient evidence that the majority of all Flagler College students feel that the JUUL should be allowed on campus. Therefore, a confidence interval will be created to estimate the percent of the population of all Flagler College students who believe that the JUUL should be allowed on campus. Since a one tailed test with a level of significance of 0.05 was run, a 90% confidence interval will be created.


Prepare

              1. Random Sample with Independent Observations – Again, probably not (but we hope it is representative).  However, to proceed, we will assume it is.  Furthermore, yes, the student responses were taken in such a way that their responses were independent of each other.

              2. Large Sample – Since n*phat = (150)(0.7133) = 107 > 10 and n*(1 – phat) = (150)(1 – 0.7133) = (150)(0.2867) = 43 > 10, the sample is large.

              3. Big Population – Since 10n = (10)(150) = 1500 < 2500, the population is big.  Recall, Flagler College has a population of appropriately 2500 students.

 

Compute

 

Result 4: result 4   [Info]

One sample proportion summary confidence interval:


p : Proportion of successes
Method: Standard-Wald

90% confidence interval results:
ProportionCountTotalSample Prop.Std. Err.L. LimitU. Limit
p841500.560.0405298240.493334370.62666563

 

Interpret


We are 90% confident that between 44% and 56% of all Flagler College students find that the JUUL should be allowed on campus. This is certainly the majority of all Flagler College students.


Hypothesis Test #2 – A Claim of the Difference between two Population Proportions 

A contingency table was created to compare the opinions of the students who have ever used a JUUL and if they think it should be banned on campus. Of the 76 students who have never used a JUUL, 48 said it should be banned on campus and 28 said it should be allowed. Out of the 74 students who have used the JUUL, 18 people said it should be banned and 56 said it should be allowed. With an approximately 25% difference in these percentage, the sample gives some reason to believe that the population of students at Flagler College who have ever used the JUUL and the population of the students who have never used a JUUL differ in their opinion that the JUUL should be allowed on campus.


Result 5: result 5   [Info]

Contingency table results:


Rows: Ever Used JUUL
Columns: Banned on FC Campus
No, BannedYes, AllowedTotal
No482876
Yes185674
Total6684150

Chi-Square test:


StatisticDFValueP-value
Chi-square122.94711<0.0001

 

A hypothesis test will be used to determine if this difference is statistically significant for the population of students at Flagler College.  This test will be run at a level of significance of 0.05. 


Hypothesize

Null: There is no difference in the proportion of the population of students at Flagler College who have ever JUULed and the proportion of the population of students who have never JUULed at Flagler College who feel the JUUL should be allowed on campus. 

Alternate: There is a difference in the proportion of the population of students at Flagler College who have ever JUULed and the proportion of the population of students who have never JUULed at Flagler College who feel the JUUL should be allowed on campus. 

Based on the alternate hypothesis, this is a two tailed test.


Prepare:

1.       Large Samples – It is found that the pooled sample proportion is 

p-hat = (x1 + x2)/(n1 + n2) = (28 + 74)/(56 + 76) = 102/132 = 0.7727

Sample One (Ever): Since n1*p-hat = (81)(0.7133) = 57.8 > 10 and

n1*(1 - p-hat) = (56)(1 – 0.7727) = (56)(0.2273) = 12.73 > 10, sample one is large.

Sample Two (Never): Since n2*p-hat = (76)(0.7727) = 58.73 > 10 and

n2*(1 - p-hat) = (76)(1 – 0.7727) = (76)(2273) = 17.27 > 10, sample two is large.

2. Random Samples – Again, probably not (but we hope they are representative).  However, to proceed, we will assume they are.

3. Independent Samples – Yes, the student responses were taken in such a way that their responses were independent of each other.  

4. Independence between Samples – Yes, there is no relationship between the students who have ever JUULed and students who have never JUULed. 


Compute

 

Result 6: result 6   [Info]

Two sample proportion summary hypothesis test:


p1 : proportion of successes for population 1
p2 : proportion of successes for population 2
p1 - p2 : Difference in proportions
H0 : p1 - p2 = 0
HA : p1 - p2 ≠ 0

Hypothesis test results:
DifferenceCount1Total1Count2Total2Sample Diff.Std. Err.Z-StatP-value
p1 - p2567428760.38833570.0810668554.7903142<0.0001

 

Interpret

Since the p – value = 0.0001 is less than the level of significance of 0.05, the null hypothesis will be rejected.  Therefore, there is sufficient evidence that there exists a difference in the proportion of the population of students who have ever JUULed and students who have never JUULed think that the JUUL should be allowed on campus.


Confidence Interval #2 –Estimate the Difference between two Population Proportions

The hypothesis test gave us sufficient evidence that there is a significant difference in the opinion that social media is a distraction between the population of Social Students at Flagler College and the population of Unsocial Students at Flagler College Therefore, a confidence interval will be created to estimate this difference and hopefully confirm that the two population proportions cannot be equal.  Since a two tailed test with a level of significance of 0.05 was run, a 95% confidence interval will be created.


Prepare

              1. Random Samples with Independent Observations – Again, probably not (but we hope it is representative).  However, to proceed, we will assume it is.  Furthermore, yes, the student responses were taken in such a way that their responses were independent of each other.

2. Large Samples –

Sample One (Social Students): Since n1*p-hat1 = (56)(0.593) = 48 > 10 and

n1*(1 - p-hat1) = (56)(1 – 0.593) = (56)(0.407) = 33 > 10, sample one is large.

Sample Two (Unsocial Students): Since n2*p-hat2 = (76)(0.855) = 59 > 10 and

n2*(1 - p-hat2) = (76)(1 – 0.855) = (56)(0.145) = 10 > 10, sample two is large.

3. Big Populations – Recall, Flagler College has a population of appropriately 2500 students.  Since we are unsure what overall percentage of the students are or are not affected socially by social media, we will assume 50% are and 50% are not.  Hence, there are approximately (0.50)(2500) = 1250 students who are Social Students and (0.50)(2500) = 1250 students who are Unsocial Students in the population.

Population One (ever): Since 10n1 = (10)(76) = 760 < 1250, population one is big.  

Population Two (never): Since 10n2 = (10)(56) = 560 < 1250, population two is big.  

4. Independent Samples – Yes, the student responses were taken in such a way that their responses were independent of each other.  

Compute

 

Result 7: result 7   [Info]

Two sample proportion summary confidence interval:


p1 : proportion of successes for population 1
p2 : proportion of successes for population 2
p1 - p2 : Difference in proportions

95% confidence interval results:
DifferenceCount1Total1Count2Total2Sample Diff.Std. Err.L. LimitU. Limit
p1 - p2567428760.38833570.0744928440.242332410.534339

 

Interpret

This confidence interval is completely positive; this indicates that the percentage of the population of all Flagler students who have used a JUUL and think it should be allowed on campus is more than the percentage of the population of all Students who have never used the JUUL feel the JUUL should be banned on campus.  Thus, I am 95% confident that the percentage of all “ever” students who feel the JUUL should be allowed on campus between 12.7% and 39.8% greater than the percentage of all students who think JUUL should be allowed on campus. 


Conclusion

Society has embraced the nicotine addiction in young adults and the consequences it has on our future and the other people around us like on school campus. In this report, the sample provided evidence that the majority of Flagler College students think that the JUUL should be allowed on campus and that the majority of the students have ever used the JUUL. In was found that there is a statistical evidence that those students who have ever used the JUUL said that it should be allowed on campus and those who have never used the JUUL said it should be banned on campus. It was estimated that between 24.2% and 53.4% more of all Flagler College Students who feel that using the JUUL on campus will distract others who do not use it on campus or at all. This is a natural association to me and because those who have never used it would not want it to be allowed on campus because it doesn’t benefit them in any way. 

The underlying purpose of JUULing is to help you not be as addicted to cigarettes but JUUL’s have in fact become even more addictive. It has also become a trend with younger generation especially us college students. I personally am a JUULer but have respect for others on campus who are not, and I do not use it. It is a problem with our age group and I wish there was an easier way to get rid of it to benefit everyone. 

Data set 1. Kosco and Sawyer - Flagler College Students and JU   [Info]
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<A href="https://www.statcrunch.com/5.0/viewreport.php?reportid=87279">PHASE THREE: JUUL survey Flagler College students spring 2019</A>

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