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Owner: amodonnell
Created: Apr 22, 2016
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Stats 201 Spring 2016 Group 30 2016 Presidential Campaign
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Abstract (Tyler McFarland)
 
With the 2016 presidential election soon upon us, we, as Group 30, decided to implement our project within the presidential race. February 13, 2016, the race was considered quite more serious to many, due to the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia; making the Supreme Court split with four Republican, and four Democratic Justices. The next President of the United States, is allowed to appoint the next Justice, which will shape domestic policy for years to come. We implemented each party’s leaders in the polls; (D) Hillary Clinton, (D) Bernie Sanders, (R) Donald Trump, (R) Ted Cruz, (R) John Kasich, and then an “Other/No one” selection. Between the controversies with entrepreneur, Donald Trump, Senator Bernie Sanders, and former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, we decided this topic would be intriguing to lay out for a small percentage of what West Virginia University students think about the upcoming election.
 
While we believed the majority of our 101 respondents would be in favor for Donald Trump, but, we were actually startled by the number of respondents whom voted for Senator Bernie Sanders; Donald received a total of 5.15% of the votes from the respondents, while Senator Sanders received 37.11% of the votes. Our sample, and the CNN, and other national polls, conclude that Senator Sanders, is indeed winning the youth vote. While the CNN polls show Secretary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders coming close with each state; our results show otherwise, with Secretary Clinton receiving the lowest amount of votes from all candidates; 2.06%. Understanding our data, our hypothesis was incorrect; Donald Trump was indeed not the most favored; the most favored was Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders.

Materials and Methods (Sarah Azly and Jon Kraft)


The purpose of this experiment is to survey our peers and see what their political stance is in the 2016 U.S Presidential Campaign. The materials we used were Statcrunch, to create the survey itself, and to control the access of the survey as well as analyzing the results. We also used Facebook, Twitter and GroupMe and our email to send the survey to our sample population (which is convenient sampling). We asked questions about our peers’ political views such as: “What political party are you currently registered as?” and “Which presidential candidate do you support?”. The Main question of our survey is: “Which presidential candidate do you support” and we analyzed this by using the Confidence interval, which is a type of interval to estimate a population parameter, as well as the Hypothesis Test, a procedure to see if we should accept or reject the statistical hypothesis we came up with in the first place.

 


Discussion (Anne O'Donnell)


We wanted to investigate whether Donald Trump was a well-supported candidate among 16 to 100 year-olds. According to our results, Donald Trump was one of the least favored candidates, second only to Hillary Clinton, with candidate Bernie Sanders being the most supported. Our hypothesis test indicates that only a minority (less than 50%) of respondents favored Trump, with a p-value of less than 0.0001 providing sufficient evidence to reject our null hypothesis that Trump was neither favored nor unfavored (Ho: p=0.5) and support our alternative hypothesis that Trump supporters were in the minority (Ha: p<0.5). We are also 95% confident that the true proportion of all Trump supporters is between 0.754% and 9.55%, indicating that 95% of samples of 101 people would contain the true proportion within these limits. Since we used convenience sampling techniques, a better experiment would feature a simple random sampling technique. Additionally, a larger sample size would help support or refute our results.


Results (Liz Newton)

As our results show, 37.11% of respondents favored Bernie Sanders, 25.77% of respondents did not favor anyone, 15.46% of respondents favored John Kasich, 14.43% of respondents favored Ted Cruz, 5.15% of respondents favored Donald Trump, and 2.06% of respondents favored Hillary Clinton for the 2016 Presidential Campaign. Our hypothesis was that less than 50% of respondents would favor Donald Trump. The results of the hypothesis test do favor our hypothesis that minority of respondents do favor Donald Trump (p<0.0001). The 95% confidence interval results also favor our hypothesis showing that the minority of those who favor Donald Trump are between 0.0075 and 0.0955.



 

Result 1: One Sample Proportion   [Info]
Hypothesis test results:
Outcomes in : Q7
Success : Donald Trump
p : Proportion of successes
H0 : p = 0.5
HA : p < 0.5
VariableCountTotalSample Prop.Std. Err.Z-StatP-value
Q75970.0515463920.050767308-8.8335116<0.0001

Result 2: Pie Chart With Data   [Info]
Right click to copy

Result 3: One Sample Proportion   [Info]
95% confidence interval results:
Outcomes in : Q7
Success : Donald Trump
p : Proportion of successes
Method: Standard-Wald
VariableCountTotalSample Prop.Std. Err.L. LimitU. Limit
Q75970.0515463920.0224502570.00754469690.095548087

Data set 1. Responses to Presidential Campaign   [Info]
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<A href="https://www.statcrunch.com/5.0/viewreport.php?reportid=59201">Stats 201 Spring 2016 Group 30 2016 Presidential Campaign</A>

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